Tornado Folly
A severe weather phenomenon struck Alabama last week, a spate of tornadoes with tragic consequences, and the kooks came out of the woodwork like singing cockroaches blaming global warming.
First off, weather is not climate. More importantly, Midwest tornadoes are caused by cold air, not warm.
As Roy W. Spencer points out [here]
I see the inevitable blame-humanity game has been reinvigorated by the recent tornado swarm. … If there is one weather phenomenon global warming theory does NOT predict more of, it would be severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
Tornadic thunderstorms do not require tropical-type warmth. In fact, tornadoes are almost unheard of in the tropics, despite frequent thunderstorm activity.
Instead, tornadoes require strong wind shear (wind speed and direction changing rapidly with height in the lower atmosphere), the kind which develops when cold and warm air masses “collide”. Of course, other elements must be present, such as an unstable airmass and sufficient low-level humidity, but wind shear is the key. Strong warm advection (warm air riding up and over the cooler air mass, which is also what causes the strong wind shear) in advance of a low pressure area riding along the boundary between the two air masses is where these storms form.
But contrasting air mass temperatures is the key. Active tornado seasons in the U.S. are almost always due to unusually COOL air persisting over the Midwest and Ohio Valley longer than it normally does as we transition into spring.
Yes, sports fans, tornadoes are more frequent in cold years, and this year has been record cold. April in the PNW was the coldest in 36 years, 3.1°F below average. April followed a record cold March, 1.1°F below average. February was the 8th coldest February on record (1940-2011), 2.8°F below average [here].
A new record was set for the latest “first 60 degree day of the calendar year” on March 31st. The old record was March 27th set in 1955. Snowpacks are 150%+ above average. We have had one (count ‘em one) day above 70°F in 2011. That was yesterday, for about 5 minutes when the temp climbed to a stunning 71°F, before plunging again. It’s cold and clammy today, and we’ll be lucky to hit 50°F.
Two years ago the Pacific Decadal Oscillation shifted negative. Then a La Nina set in. But our temperature downturn is not all that new. Annual average temperature in the Pacific Northwest has been trending downward (-0.42°F per decade) since 1994. Average winter temps have been trending downward even more precipitously (-1.29°F per decade).
Climate At A Glance, Northwest Region. Winter (Dec-Feb) 1994-2011 Trend = -1.29 degF / decade. Graph courtesy National Climatic Data Center [here].
Warmer is better. It would be much preferable if average temperatures would go up instead of down. But down they are going and have been going for 15 years.
The kooks have not noticed that, however. The kooks think temperatures are going up, which they are not. The kooks think colder is better, which it isn’t.
The kooks include the Pervert Elite [here] who rule Oregon. Evidently the kooks in charge are too busy raping children to notice the weather, much less the climate.
But when some really nasty weather hits, like a spate of tornadoes, the kooks come crawling out of their dark hidey holes, where they were doing God knows what, and honk “global warming, global warming” like mindless geese. Except it isn’t warming but cooling that causes tornadoes.
But don’t let the facts get in the way of your hysterical paranoia fit. If you want to think it’s getting warmer when it actually isn’t, that’s your choice. Be insane. It’s not a crime. And your Fearless Leaders will thank you for your loyalty, no matter how contrary to reality it is, in fact the more contrary the better. If they can get you to believe the opposite of the truth, make you deny even to yourself the obvious facts in front of your very eyes, then they have done their sicko job.
