Record Fall Chinook Run Occurring
by Ken Schlichte
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation created cool ocean conditions and favorable ocean salmon habitat conditions in 2008 and 2009 (shown below in Figure 2 from the Northwest Fisheries Science Center) that have resulted in 2010’s large Columbia River Spring Chinook run and are now resulting in an even larger 2010 Columbia River Fall Chinook run.
Figure 2. Time series of shifts in sign of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), 1925 to 2009. Values are averaged over the months of May through September. Red bars indicate positive (warm) years; blue bars negative (cool) years. Note that 2008 was the most negative since 1956.
This year’s Fall Chinook passage at Bonneville has already surpassed 2009 and the run has not even peaked yet.
Record Sockeye Run in B.C.
by Ken Schlichte
Sockeye Returns Best in Nearly a Century
By Tracy Sherlock, Vancouver Sun, August 25 2010 [here]
B.C. is now reaping the biggest sockeye salmon return in nearly a century, just a year after one of the smallest returns on record. Fishery officials estimated Tuesday that more than 25 million sockeye salmon will return to the Fraser River this year, the largest number since 1913. Last year’s return was 1.7 million.
The estimate could yet go higher, Barry Rosenberger, area director for the Department of Fisheries and Oceans, said as Tuesday’s test catch was the largest all year. The department has approved another set of openings for commercial fishing and expanded the fishery based on the record returns.
The huge bounty is causing challenges for supplier and retailer 7 Seas, where they’re turning fishermen away due to a surplus of sockeye.
People have fish going rotten in their boats; it’s really bad,” said 7 Seas president George Heras. “The fish is overwhelming everyone right now because there is way more than anyone expected.” …
The huge salmon run, ironically, comes during the $15-million Cohen commission of inquiry into the disappearance of Fraser sockeye.
The federal commission is going through a transformation of its own. It initially created a scientific advisory panel composed of six fisheries scientists, but this panel has now been scrapped in favour of a model that focuses on peer review. An Aug. 17 press release announced the change along with the establishment of 12 research projects “to study aspects of the decline of Fraser River sockeye salmon, as well as the cumulative effects of the decline.” …
The recent dismissal of the panel follows the July resignation from the panel of Brian Riddell, a 30-year scientist with the federal fisheries department who is now chief executive officer of the Pacific Salmon Foundation. Riddell quit over concerns the commission wasn’t keeping politics and science separate.
Eidsvik said the fact that this year’s run is so large, but last year’s run was drastically small, means many possible causes for the salmon fishery’s decline can be discounted, including global warming. …
Last year’s drastically small Fraser River sockeye salmon run contrasts with last year’s Columbia River Bonneville Dam sockeye salmon run, illustrated [here], which was larger than the Ten Year Average (2000-2009) sockeye salmon run. We have seen the information indicating that last year’s above average Columbia River sockeye salmon run and this year’s huge Columbia River sockeye salmon run occurred because of the favorable offshore ocean habitat conditions created by the Cool Regime of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Those conditions should also have favored Fraser River sockeye salmon runs. It appears that 2009’s drastically small Fraser River sockeye salmon run was due to poor management of that fishery.
Sockeye salmon run sets record for Columbia River
The Oregonian, August 01, 2010 [here]
Although there are 100 or so stragglers every day and it will only be “official” in a week or so, the run of sockeye salmon up the Columbia River this summer is the highest since Bonneville Dam started operating in 1938. …
About 250 miles upstream, the sockeye count over Priest Rapids Dam is more than 350,000. That is significant because Priest Rapids is the first Columbia River dam past the Snake River and means hundreds of thousands of sockeye are headed to rivers and spawning lakes in north central Washington and British Columbia. … [more]
Record Salmon Return Explained
This year’s record salmon returns are a mystery to some folks, such as wildlife agency functionaries, but not to us.
Sockeye Count Easily Surpasses 1947
Record Run; ‘Unexpected And Hard To Explain’
The Columbia Basin Bulletin, July 09, 2010 [here]
Sockeye salmon continue to zoom up and over the lower Columbia River’s Bonneville Dam where they are now setting records daily.
The 2010 sockeye count at Bonneville’s fish ladders through Thursday had climbed to 364,019. Before this year, the record sockeye return to the Columbia, which includes fish caught in non-Indian commercial fisheries in the 146 river miles below Bonneville and the dam count, was 335,300 fish in 1947.
Note: as of July 25th the Bonneville sockeye count was 386,071.
The 2010 Bonneville count passed that 1947 mark on Independence Day.
Gill netters harvested 164,200 sockeye (574,000 pounds) in 1947 and 171,139 were counted passing Bonneville, according to data compiled by the Oregon and Washington departments of fish and wildlife. The two agencies co-manage mainstem fisheries on the mainstem Columbia.
The Technical Advisory Committee updated its 2010 sockeye run-size forecast last week to 375,000 fish. The preseason forecast was for a return of 125,000 sockeye to the mouth of the Columbia, but skyrocketing daily counts at Bonneville pushed the forecast to 250,000 and then to 375,000.
This year’s count also exceeds the record Bonneville count, which was 237,700 fish in 1955. Counts have been under way since 1938.
Virtually all Columbia River sockeye are wild-origin fish, originating predominantly from Osoyoos Lake in Canada, with a smaller proportion from Lake Wenatchee. In the Snake River, only a small number of sockeye have returned each year over the past two decades. But their number spiked in 2008 and 2009 when 909 and 1,219 were counted passing the lower Snake River’s Lower Granite Dam, the eighth hydro project the sockeye pass on their way to central Idaho’s Stanley Basin.
Already this year (through Thursday) 938 sockeye have been counted at Lower Granite. The daily counts there rose steadily to a peak of 162 Tuesday. That count was followed by a tally of 143 on Wednesday and 104 on Thursday. Most of the returning Snake River sockeye are the product of a captive broodstock program.
Note: as of July 25th the Lower Granite sockeye count was 1,925.
The Bonneville sockeye counts peaked from June 20-25 when more than 160,000 climbed over the fish ladders. The counts during that period ranged from 25,011 on June 20 to 30,690 on June 24. The latter count is the highest ever, breaking a record set the previous day (30,374).
The record run is “unexpected and hard to explain,” said the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife’s Kathryn Kostow, who also chairs TAC. The committee is made up of federal, state and tribal officials. TAC typically would investigate such “odd events” at season’s end. …
Hard for some people to explain. But the abundantly obvious and evident reason for record salmon runs is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation shift that occurred in 2008, when cool waters replaced warmer waters in the eastern Pacific. Upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water feeds plankton and subsequently the entire food chain, including salmon.
Ken Schlichte predicted the record salmon runs here at NFTSF [here, here], and so did I [here]. No offense to Ken, but it didn’t take a genius to recognize the obvious, especially after record salmon runs in 2009.
The PDO shift was also predicted at W.I.S.E. in 2008 [here].
Maybe the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife ought to read this site. They could learn a lot here, and dispel some of their confusion and misapprehension.
Salmon Report July 25th
As of yesterday (July 24th) 244,384 adult spring Chinook salmon, 94,628 adult summer Chinook salmon, 385,950 Sockeye salmon, and 148,567 Steelhead have passed the Bonneville Dam, heading upstream in the Columbia River system to spawn.
That number (873,529 total) is nearly twice the number of adult salmon and steelhead passing Bonneville last year by July 24th (457,119), and more than twice the ten-year average to-date (423,794).
See [here] for more salmon graphs.
See [here] for more salmon statistics.
Another Bubbleheaded Salmon Lawsuit
The usual suspects have filed another lawsuit to force water spillage over the dams of the State of Washington. The ostensible purpose is to “save salmon” but in fact water spillage kills salmon smolts. The practical result, if the lawsuit is successful, will be to reduce renewable energy production, increase electricity rates, and kill fingerling salmon on their way to the ocean.
Groups sue for more water over dams for salmon
By PHUONG LE, Seattle PI, June 3, 2010 [here]
SEATTLE — Conservation and fishermen’s groups sued the state Department of Ecology on Thursday to get more water to spill over dams along the Columbia and Snake Rivers, protecting salmon and steelhead.
The groups want the state to change its water quality standards so more water can be spilled over federal dams. They say releasing more water over the dams - rather than running it through turbines - improves salmon’s chances of surviving their migration.
Earthjustice filed the lawsuit in Thurston County Superior Court on behalf of the Northwest Sportfishing Industry Association, the Association of Northwest Steelheaders, the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Associations, the Institute for Fisheries Resources and Idaho Rivers United.
“We think this standard is badly needed to help imperiled salmon and steelhead, and we want Washington to do the right thing,” said Amanda Goodin, an Earthjustice attorney.
Ecology denied the groups’ latest petition in May, citing concerns about possible harm to other aquatic life. The state said at the time that the change may provide a small benefit to salmon but may also harm other animals.
In response to Thursday’s lawsuit, Ecology said it follows federal clean water rules and noted that it already allows more water to spill over dams in certain situations.
“Ecology does not believe the overall benefits of additional spill versus detrimental effects to aquatic life is clear or sufficient to justify a rule revision of the water quality standards,” the agency said in a statement.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Bonneville Power Administration control the level of spill at federal dams along the Snake and Columbia Rivers, but they must also meet state water quality standards, according to the lawsuit.
The dispute here involves limits on dissolved gases. Water spill can cause high levels of gases in the river. … [more]
Water spillage means water to the hydroelectric turbines will be shot off and the downstream flow forced over the tops of the dams. That increases the air in the water (dissolved gas supersaturation) below the dams and causes “gas-bubble disease” in the salmon smolts (those that survive the fall). Spill mortality is at least twice the mortality of smolts that pass through turbines. Furthermore, the dams now have smolt diversion systems that direct the smolts away from the turbines and into bypass spillways.
This issue is old. Spillage was first proposed in the early 1990’s and has been proven to kill smolts at high rates. Spillage is expensive, too. The water that does not go through turbines does not produce electricity.
Moreover, returns of adult salmon are achieving record rates due to the cool ocean conditions (caused by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) [here].
The usual sue-happy groups do not actually represent fishermen or their interests. Their agenda is to destroy the economy of the Pacific Northwest for the usual Marxist revolutionary reasons. The bubbleheads also hope to garner $millions in free handouts from the Federal Government in the form of Equal Access to Justice Act (EAJA) funds.
As so it goes. The anarchists use the Justice System to monkeywrench the entire region, cut off renewable energy, kill baby salmon, and line their pockets from the Federal Treasury. Congress sits there dumbfounded, or worse, fully complicit in the anarchists’ strategy.
In the end it’s the public that’s bubbleheaded for allowing these destructive actions to continue.
Spring Chinook Report June 2nd
As of yesterday (June 2nd) 244,362 adult spring Chinook salmon have passed the Bonneville Dam, heading upstream in the Columbia River system to spawn.
That number is more than twice the number of adult salmon passing Bonneville last year by June 2nd (114,525), and 1.5 times the ten-year average to-date (167,834).
See [here] for more salmon graphs.
See [here] for more salmon statistics.
Spring Chinook Report April 30th
As of yesterday (April 30th) 133,902 adult spring Chinook salmon have passed the Bonneville Dam, heading upstream in the Columbia River system to spawn.
That number is 6 times greater than the number of adult salmon passing Bonneville last year by April 30th (21,996), and 1.4 times the ten-year average (95,268).
See [here] for more salmon graphs.
See [here] for more salmon statistics.
EPA’s Efforts Will Have No Effect On Ocean pH
by Ken Schlichte
Oceans are not acidic, despite front-page headlines, “EPA tackles acidic oceans.”
Oceans are actually alkaline with a surface pH of around 8.1.
The article with this headline in the Olympian stated that the EPA is exploring whether to use the Clean Water Act to control greenhouse gas emissions because climate change legislation is stalled in Congress. The Washington Department of Ecology had originally been asked to use the Clean Water Act to regulate emissions, but stated that there wasn’t enough data about acidification of specific bodies of water to justify any such listings.
The serious concern being used by the EPA to justify its control of greenhouse gas emissions is the up-welling of deep ocean water along the West Coast by northwest summer winds. This deep ocean water is alkaline, but is somewhat less alkaline than the surface ocean water because it is colder and therefore contains more dissolved carbon dioxide.
The deep ocean water up-welling along the West Coast may not been have exposed at the ocean surface for centuries and the EPA efforts to control current greenhouse gas emissions will therefore have no effect on the pH of this deep ocean water for many years. These EPA efforts will also have no effect on the northwest winds and the ocean up-welling that they will continue to create along the West Coast.
The reference:
EPA tackles acidic oceans
Agency looks at Clean Water Act to help in fight
LES BLUMENTHAL, The Olympian, April 04, 2010 [here]
WASHINGTON - The Environmental Protection Agency is exploring whether to use the Clean Water Act to control greenhouse gas emissions, which are turning the oceans acidic at a rate that has alarmed some scientists.
With climate change legislation stalled in Congress, the Clean Water Act would serve as a second front, as the Obama administration has sought to use the Clean Air Act to rein in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases administratively.
Since the dawn of the industrial age, acid levels in the oceans have increased 30 percent. Currently, the oceans are absorbing 22 million tons of carbon dioxide a day.
Among other things, scientists worry that the increase in acidity could interrupt the delicate marine food chain, which ranges from microscopic plankton to whales.
“There are all sorts of evils associated with this,” said Robert Paine, an emeritus professor of biology at the University of Washington. … [more]
Some additional comments:
derekcrane wrote:
The key element of the article is that “some scientists” are alarmed. Many aren’t. The ph of the oceans is 8.1, which is alkaline, and there has been no measured acidification.
Menzie wrote:
This article doesn’t say squat. It doesn’t give the “measurement units” that were used. For all we know, it could be billionths of a PH level, which doubling would do virtually nothing to in the grand scheme of things. Another horrible article designed to social engineer and scare the masses into giving up their cars and go back to eating vegetables and tree bark.
Dr. Walter Starck, one of the pioneers in the scientific investigation of coral reefs and editor of Golden Dolphin [here] (a video CD magazine of diving and underwater photography) adds:
Another factor not fully appreciated by most is that as there is no photosynthesis in the deep ocean, the CO2 in deep water is the accumulated total from all aerobic life there for hundreds of years. Likewise the O2 level is similarly depleted and the pH lower. Recent attempts to attribute the lower pH and higher CO2 content associated with upwelling of deep water to the increase in atmospheric CO2 can only be either scientific incompetence or fraud.
Dead Zone Dire Report
The impending doom attributed to “dead zones” on the Oregon’s continental shelf is the latest “climate change” scare-mongering in the Dead Tree Press.
Dead zones are hypoxic (low-oxygen) areas in the world’s oceans. They are natural deep sea oceanographic phenomena caused by a lack of mixing with surface waters. Dead zones have been present, it is assumed, ever since oceans formed on this planet a few billion years ago.
Some researchers, notably Jane Lubchenco, current Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), claim that dead zones are growing due to global warming [here, here]. However, oceanographic models have failed miserably in predicting dead zones, which have appeared to have shrunk in the last few years [here], contrary to model predictions.
But the scare-mongering won’t go away. The science is settled, except for the fact that it isn’t.
