Shape-shifting islands defy sea-level rise
by Wendy Zukerman< New Scientist, 02 June 2010 [here]
AGAINST all the odds, a number of shape-shifting islands in the middle of the Pacific Ocean are standing up to the effects of climate change.
For years, people have warned that the smallest nations on the planet - island states that barely rise out of the ocean - face being wiped off the map by rising sea levels. Now the first analysis of the data broadly suggests the opposite: most have remained stable over the last 60 years, while some have even grown.
Paul Kench at the University of Auckland in New Zealand and Arthur Webb at the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission in Fiji used historical aerial photos and high-resolution satellite images to study changes in the land surface of 27 Pacific islands over the last 60 years. During that time, local sea levels have risen by 120 millimetres, or 2 millimetres per year on average.
Despite this, Kench and Webb found that just four islands have diminished in size since the 1950s. The area of the remaining 23 has either stayed the same or grown (Global and Planetary Change, DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.05.003).
Webb says the trend is explained by the islands’ composition. Unlike the sandbars of the eastern US coast, low-lying Pacific islands are made of coral debris. This is eroded from the reefs that typically circle the islands and pushed up onto the islands by winds, waves and currents. Because the corals are alive, they provide a continuous supply of material. “Atolls are composed of once-living material,” says Webb, “so you have a continual growth.” Causeways and other structures linking islands can boost growth by trapping sediment that would otherwise get lost to the ocean.
All this means the islands respond to changing weather and climate. For instance, when hurricane Bebe hit Tuvalu in 1972 it deposited 140 hectares of sedimentary debris onto the eastern reef, increasing the area of the main island by 10 per cent.
Kench says that while the 27 islands in his study are just a small portion of the thousands of low-lying Pacific islands, it shows that they are naturally resilient to rising sea levels. “It has been thought that as the sea level goes up, islands will sit there and drown,” he says. “But they won’t. The sea level will go up and the island will start responding.” … [more]
May shaping up to be coldest on record
By Sean Ellis, Idaho Statesman, May 30, 2010 [here]
POCATELLO — If you think this spring has been wetter than normal, you would be wrong. If you think it’s been colder than usual, you would be spot on.
Through Sunday, three all-time record low temperatures had been set this month. Depending on what today’s average temperature is, this could be the coldest May ever recorded in Pocatello.
“It has been very cold pretty much the entire spring,” said Greg Kaiser, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Pocatello.
The average temperature for May in Pocatello is 53 degrees.
With Sunday and Monday still to be factored in, the average temperature this May has been 48.1 degrees, a full 5 degrees below normal. The coldest May ever recorded in the Gate City was in 1953, when the month’s average temperature was 48.8 degrees. … [more]
Global Cold Wave May Be Looming — This Time, the Science Is Good
La Nina, a solar minimum, and a massive volcanic eruption make a threesome of cold weather events not seen for two hundred years.
by Art Horn, Pajamas Media, May 31, 2010 [here]
In a cosmically ironic twist of fate and timing, nature may be set to empirically freeze any and all anthropogenic global warming talk: a blast of Arctic cold may encase the earth in an icy grip not seen for 200 years.
This is not alarmist fantasy or 2012 babble — several natural forces that are known to cause cooling are awakening simultaneously, raising speculation of a “perfect storm” of downward pressures on global temperature. These forces let loose one at a time can cause the Earth to cool and can bring about harsh winter conditions. If they all break free at once, the effects could be felt not just in the coming winter, but year-round, and for several years to come.
On March 20, a volcano erupted on the island of Iceland. … This volcano has only erupted three times since the 9th century, the last eruption occurring in the early 1820s. In the past, it has been followed by a much larger eruption by the nearby Katla volcano. Katla has erupted many times on its own, usually every 60 to 80 years, and last blew in 1918. It’s overdue. …
If Eyjafjallajokull induces an eruption of Katla, that event alone could force global temperatures down for 3 to 5 years. But there is much more at work here.
We have just exited the longest and deepest solar minimum in nearly 100 years. During this minimum, the Sun had the greatest number of spotless days (days where there were no sunspots on the face of the sun) since the early 1800s. The solar cycle is usually about 11 years from minimum to minimum — this past cycle 23 lasted 12.7 years. The long length of a solar cycle has been shown to have significant short term climate significance. Australian solar researcher Dr. David Archibald has shown that for every one year increase in the solar cycle length, there is a half-degree Celsius drop in the global temperature in the next cycle.
Using that relationship, we could expect a global temperature drop of one degree Fahrenheit by 2020. That alone would wipe out all of the warming of the last 150 years.
And there is yet a third player in this potential global temperature plunge.
Since autumn of 2009, we have been under the influence of a moderately strong El Nino. … The current El Nino is predicted to fade out this summer, and frequently after an El Nino we see the development of La Nina, the colder sister of El Nino. La Nina’s cooler waters along the equatorial Pacific act to cool the Earth’s temperature.
The stage could soon be set for a confluence of cold-inducing forces. A La Nina, a weaker sun, and a possible major eruption in Iceland could plunge the Earth into a period of bitter cold not seen for two hundred years. … [more]
No global warning processes in Antarctic: Explorer
PTI, May 30, 2010 [here]
ST PETERSBURG: Allegations about global warming processes in the Antarctic have nothing to do with real facts, a Russian polar explorer has said.
“They are of opportunistic and time-serving character, and have nothing to do with the real weather and climate on the southern continent,” Head of Russia’s 54th Antarctic expedition Viktor Venderovich told Itar-Tass.
“The past summer on the south pole was cold and windy, and ice floes in the offshore water failed to melt over the entire season.
“The atmospheric air temperature near the Vostok station deep on the continent reached the customary minus 70 degrees Centigrade in the summer, and near the Novolazarevskaya station it never exceeded minus 6-8 degrees,” he said after staying at the Novolazarevskaya station for a year.
The previous winter in the Antarctic, he said, “was remarkable for its unusual severity, with blizzards and snowstorms.”
The average air temperature was 0.5 degrees lower than usual, and there were too much snow, he said, adding that a “slight warming was registered only on the Antarctic peninsula, while the rest of the continent has not been affected by the global warning and is not going to be.”
New Plans Try to Revive Carbon Trading
By JAMES KANTER, NY Times, May 24, 2010 [here]
BRUSSELS — Carbon trading was meant to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by making polluting more expensive for heavy industries, encouraging them to invest in cleaner technology. But even supporters admit that the system, also known as cap and trade, is falling far short of that goal. Critics decry it as just another form of financial profiteering with little environmental benefit.
Carbon traders, for example, have been arrested for tax fraud; evidence has emerged of lucrative projects that may do nothing to curb climate change; and steel and cement companies have booked huge profits selling surplus permits they received for free. …
Under carbon trading, governments place a “cap” on emissions from certain industries, issue a set amount of permits to companies and require them to purchase more if they exceed their limit. Companies that pollute less can “trade,” or sell their surplus permits.
The permits are traded on several exchanges throughout Europe, which dominates a global industry worth about $140 billion a year. …
The global recession also has idled factories, leaving heavy polluters like the steel company ArcelorMittal and Lafarge, a cement maker, with a huge excess of carbon permits. Some have sold their permits for millions of euros.
In the United States, the cap-and-trade idea still is supported by the administration of President Barack Obama… [more]
Arctic Ice Volume Has Increased 25% Since May, 2008
By Steve Goddard and Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That, May 29, 2010 [here]
The Navy requires accurate sea ice information for their operations, and has spent a lot of effort over the years studying, measuring, and operating in Arctic ice both above and below, such as they did in the ICEX 2009 exercise.
So, if you are planning on bringing a $900 million Los Angeles class submarine through the ice, as the captain might say to the analyst after receiving an ice report: “you’d better be damn sure of the ice thickness before I risk the boat and the crew”. …
In 2008, less than half of the ice (47%) was greater than two metres thick. Now, more than 75% of the ice is greater than two metres thick. In 2008, 18% of the ice was more than three metres thick. This year that number has increased to 28%. There has been nearly across the board ice thickening since 2008. …
In 2010, 87% of the ice (by volume) is greater than two metres thick. But in 2008, only 64% of the ice (by volume) was greater than two metres thick. …
A few weeks ago, when extent was highest in the JAXA record, our friends were asking for “volume, not extent.” Their wishes have been answered. Ice volume has increased by 25% in the last two years, and those looking for a big melt are likely going to be disappointed. … [more]
Signs of Global Cooling
Late spring snowstorm surprises Utahns
KSL.com, May 24th, 2010 [here]
SALT LAKE CITY — Many Utahns woke up to a blanket of snow Monday morning. The wet and slushy weather caused a few problems throughout the day, but the late storm was mostly an inconvenience.
The storm produced the latest spring snow ever recorded at Salt Lake City International Airport. It arrived late Sunday night and produced huge, heavy snowflakes as Salt Lake City commuters arrived for work Monday morning. … [more]
Record low of 32 set at Spokane airport today
by Mike Prager, The Spokesman-Review, May 24, 2010 [here]
Cool spring weather continues across the Inland Northwest with a record low of 32 at Spokane International Airport this morning.
Forecasters said they do not see any kind of big warm up through this week.
This morning’s weather began with a freeze warning from the National Weather Service, and many locations saw cold temperatures. Spokane International Airport had a temperature of 32 degrees, which breaks the old record of 35 set in 1975. … [more]
Cold weather isn’t imaginary … we’re setting records for late spring
The Sacramento Bee, May 24, 2010 [here]
Northern California matched or broke cold records from Redding to Stockton this weekend, the National Weather Service reported Sunday.
And more cold — and likely rain — is on its way.
In fact, the region is facing the coldest spell for this late in the season in more than a half century. … [more]
Brazilian Coffee Crops May Face Frost Next Week
By Lucia Kassai, Business Week, May 24, 2010 [here]
(Bloomberg) — Coffee crops in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of the bean, may be harmed by frost next week as a cold air mass approaching the southeast of the country pushes temperatures down, a forecaster said.
The cold front from the South Pole may damage arabica coffee plantations in some areas of the South of Minas Gerais, the country’s biggest coffee-producing region, said Expedito Rebello, head of research at the government’s Meteorology Institute, known as Inmet. … [more]
Coral reefs off Fla. Keys already at risk, now under oil threat
By KATY BISHOP, Scripps Howard News Service, 05/24/2010 [here]
… This past winter’s cold spells had “drastic” effects on corals, and experts have just begun to collect data on the loss of corals that resulted, Ruzicka added.
Corals that were 200 to 300 years old and perfectly healthy died during the five-day cold snap in January, said Causey. … [more]
My moment of rock-star glory at a climate change sceptics’ conference in America
James Delingpole, Spectator.com.uk, 26th May 2010 [here]
Wow! Finally in my life I get to experience what it’s like to be a rock star and I’m loving every moment. OK, so the drugs are in pretty short supply. As too is the meaningless sex with nubile groupies. But what do I care, the crowd love me and I love them. God bless America! God bless the Heartland Institute’s Fourth International Conference on Climate Change!
You’d think it would be quite dull, a conference of 700 climate sceptics (or ‘realists’, as we prefer to call ourselves) cooped up for two and half days of intense panel sessions (‘Quantifying the Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Organisms’; ‘Green Eggs and Scam: the Myth of Green Jobs’; ‘Analysis of the Russian Segment of the HADCRUT3 Database’) and lectures (beginning at 7.30 a.m). But I haven’t had so much fun in years.
First, the hospitality. They know how to look after you, these right-leaning US think tanks — even modest-sized ones like the free-market Heartland Institute, which suffers the misfortune of being largely funded by private donors rather than — contrary to what you’re told by many greens — Big Oil, Big Carbon or Big Totally Evil. Food is good. Booze is plentiful. …
New Ice Age to begin in 2014
Russian scientist to alarmists: “Sun heats Earth!”
by Jerome R. Corsi, Climate Realists, May 18th 2010, [here]
CHICAGO – A new “Little Ice Age” could begin in just four years, predicted Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia.
Abdussamatov was speaking yesterday at the Heartland Institute’s Fourth International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago, which began Sunday and ends today.
The Little Ice Age, which occurred after an era known in scientific circles as the Medieval Warm Period, is typically defined as a period of about 200 years, beginning around 1650 and extending through 1850.
In the first of a two-part video WND recorded at the conference, Abdussamatov explained that average annual sun activity has experienced an accelerated decrease since the 1990s. In 2005-2008, he said, the earth reached the maximum of the recent observed global-warming trend. … [more]
Global Average Sea Surface Temperatures Poised for a Plunge
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D., May 20th, 2010 [here]
Just an update… as the following graph shows, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the equatorial Pacific (”Nino3.4″ region, red lines) have been plunging, and global average SSTs have turned the corner, too.
Click on the image for the full-size, undistorted version. Note the global values have been multiplied by 10 for display purposes.
The corresponding sea level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin (SOI index, next graph) shows a rapid transition toward La Nina conditions is developing. Click for larger image.
Being a believer in natural, internal cycles in the climate system, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that global-average SSTs will plunge over the next couple of months. Based upon past experience, it will take a month or two for our (UAH) tropospheric temperatures to then follow suit.
Note: La Nina on top of the negative PDO means cold upon cold. The Pacific Ocean off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will decline to temperatures not seen since the 1960’s. Expect a cold, wet summer — unless you consider “summer” to be the 3 nice days we will get in late July.
Warmer Is Better (I Told You So)
Prominent Princeton Scientist Dr. Happer Testifies to Congress: “Warming and increased CO2 will be good for mankind”
“CO2 is not a pollutant and it is not a poison and we should not corrupt the English language by depriving ‘pollutant’ and ‘poison’ of their original meaning”
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, May 21, 2010 [here]
Dr. Will Happer’s Testimony Before the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming - May 20, 2010
My name is William Happer, and I am the Cyrus Fogg Bracket Professor of Physics at Princeton University. I have spent my professional life studying the interactions of visible and infrared radiation with gases – one of the main physical phenomena behind the greenhouse effect. I have published over 200 papers in peer reviewed scientific journals. I am a member of a number of professional organizations, including the American Physical Society and the National Academy of Sciences. I have done extensive consulting work for the US Government and Industry. I also served as the Director of Energy Research at the Department of Energy (DOE) from 1990 to 1993, where I supervised all of DOE’s work on climate change.
Key Excerpts: The CO2 absorption band is nearly “saturated” at current CO2 levels. Adding more CO2 is like putting an additional ski hat on your head when you already have a nice warm one below it, but you are only wearing a windbreaker. The extra hat makes you a little bit warmer but to really get warm, you need to add a jacket. The IPCC thinks that this jacket is water vapor and clouds. …
The climate-change establishment has tried to eliminate any who dare question the science establishment climate scientists and by like-thinking policy-makers – you are either with us or you are a traitor.
Orwellian: I keep hearing about the “pollutant CO2,” or about “poisoning the atmosphere” with CO2, or about minimizing our “carbon footprint.” This brings to mind a comment by George Orwell: “But if thought corrupts language, language can also corrupt thought.” CO2 is not a pollutant and it is not a poison and we should not corrupt the English language by depriving “pollutant” and “poison” of their original meaning. Our exhaled breath contains about 4% CO2. That is 40,000 parts per million, or about 100 times the current atmospheric concentration. CO2 is absolutely essential for life on earth. Commercial greenhouse operators often use CO2 as a fertilizer to improve the health and growth rate of their plants. Plants, and our own primate ancestors evolved when the levels of atmospheric CO2 were at least 1000 ppm, a level that we will probably not reach by burning fossil fuels, and far above our current level of about 380 ppm. We try to keep CO2 levels in our US Navy submarines no higher than 8,000 parts per million, about 20 time current atmospheric levels. Few adverse effects are observed at even higher levels. …
more »
Scientist Disputes EPA Finding that Carbon Dioxide Poses Threat to Humans
EPA scientists say manmade carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are contributing to a warming of the global climate — and as such represent a threat to human welfare. But a leading climatologist says his research indicates that CO2 poses no threat to human welfare at all, and he says the EPA should revisit its findings.
by Gene J. Koprowski, FOXNews.com, May 18, 2010 [here]
CHICAGO — Carbon dioxide is hazardous to your health, the Environmental Protection Agency says. Oh really?
EPA scientists say manmade carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are contributing to a warming of the global climate — and as such represent a threat to human welfare. Officials went so far as to declare the gas a danger to mankind in early December. But a leading climatologist says his research indicates that CO2 poses no threat to human welfare at all, and he says the EPA should revisit its findings.
“There is an overestimation of the environment’s sensitivity to CO2,” said Dr. Patrick Michaels, senior fellow in environmental studies at the CATO Institute and a past president of the American Association of State Climatologists.
Michaels spoke before a group of about 700 scientists and government officials at the fourth International Conference on Climate Change. The conference is presented annually in Chicago by the Heartland Institute, a conservative nonprofit think tank that actively questions the theory of man’s role in global warming. Last year the Institute published Climate Change Reconsidered, a comprehensive reply to the United Nations’ latest report on climate change.
Michaels described how the U.N. gathers weather information for its computer models, on which the EPA based its ruling. He said data gathering at weather stations in some parts of the world is spotty, and U.N. scientists add new figures to compensate. But in doing so, he said, they also add errors to the final research product.
“There is a systemic bias in the computer models,” said Michaels, whose research suggests that the U.N.’s adjusted computer modeling data, rather than actual observed data, is what connects the rise in temperatures to manmade causes. When one takes away the computerized modeling enhancements, he said, mankind’s contribution to global warming is virtually nil, approximately .03 degrees, rather than .07 degrees, over the last 50 years.
Thus, he said, most of the planet’s warming is not from manmade sources. “This idea that most of the warming is due to greenhouse gases caused by man just isn’t right,” he said. … [more]
Inconvenient Truth: Sea Level Rise is Decelerating
The Hockey Schtick, May 18, 2010 [here]
Despite alarmist claims to the contrary, according to both tide gauge and satellite altimetry data, the rate of sea level rise since 1900 (and over the past 6000 years according to paleologic data) has been decelerating, not accelerating. Carefully selected tide gauge data by Simon Holgate of the UK Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory is shown in his poster below, which notes that the rate of sea level rise decelerated in the second half of the 20th century (despite exponential increases in CO2 emissions):
Click to see entire poster presentation
Furthermore, the rate of sea level rise as determined by satellite altimetry (which is only available since 1992 and is calibrated to tide gauges) has also decelerated over the past 5 years from 3.2 mm/yr to only 1.5 mm/yr, about the same rate as calculated by Holgate for the period 1954-2003. Paleologic data also indicate sea level rise has greatly decelerated over the past 6000 years, and that sea levels have been rising naturally since the last ice age.
Kerry’s Powerless America Act
Editorial, Investors Business Daily, 05/12/2010 [here]
Call it cap-and-trade or bait-and-switch, but John Kerry and Joe Lieberman continue to tilt at windmills with a bill to restrain energy growth in the name of saving the planet.
The bill introduced Wednesday and sponsored by the two senators is called the American Power Act, an Orwellian phrase if ever there was one. Like President Obama’s offshore drilling program, for every “incentive” there is a restriction. It’s as if Hamlet were to be appointed Secretary of Energy.
The legislation has little to do with developing America’s vast domestic energy supply. It’s cap-and-trade meets pork-barrel spending. It’s about regulations, restrictions and research. It does not deal with exploiting America’s vast energy reserves but with finding ways to mitigate their alleged harmful effect.
To that end, the bill creates some 60 new agencies and projects to eat up our tax dollars and buy support … [more]
Questions posed for Kerry, Lieberman on new climate-energy bill
by Paul Driessen, CFACT, May 12, 2010 [here]
The new Kerry-Lieberman climate bill mandates a 17% reduction in US carbon dioxide emissions by 2020. It first targets power plants and refineries that provide reliable, affordable electricity and fuel for American homes, schools, hospitals, offices and factories – and then, in six years, further hobbles the manufacturing sector itself.
The House-passed climate bill goes even further. It requires an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. Once population growth and transportation, communication and electrification technologies are taken into account, this translates into emission levels last seen around 1870!
House Speaker Pelosi says “every aspect of our lives must be subjected to an inventory,” to ensure that America achieves these emission mandates. This means replacing what is left of our free-market economy with an intrusive Green Nanny State, compelling us to switch to unreliable wind and solar power, and imposing skyrocketing energy costs on every company and citizen.
Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Agency is implementing its own draconian energy restrictions, in case Congress does not enact punitive legislation.
It’s time to ask these politicians some fundamental questions. … [more]