31 Dec 2009, 10:36pm
Climate and Weather
by admin

Record Cold Wave Predicted

A record cold wave is predicted for the next two weeks or more, across much of North America and Europe. The basis for that prediction is the periodic convergence of a pair of oceanic and atmospheric multi-year “oscillations”.

Major northern hemisphere cold snap coming

by Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That, Dec 30, 2009 [here]

Cold event setups in atmospheric circulation patterns are aligning. Two days ago I brought to your attention that there was a strong downspike in the Arctic Oscillation Index and that the North Atlantic Oscillation Index was also negative. See The Arctic Oscillation Index goes strongly negative [here].

Yesterday, Senior AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi let loose with this stunning prediction on the AccuWeather premium web site via Brett Anderson’s Global warming blog:

What is facing the major population centers of the northern hemisphere is unlike anything that we have seen since the global warming debate got to the absurd level it is now, which essentially has been there is no doubt about all this. For cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.
… [more]

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) going negative means high pressure over the Arctic region and low pressure at midlatitudes (positive means low pressure over the Arctic, and high pressure at midlatitudes). The AO has gone strongly negative.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a long-duration (20 to 40 years) fluctuation in sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases. This year the AMO shifted to to the cold phase after 15 years in the warm phase.

Put those two together and not only do you get AMOAO (my cat says that), but you get jet streams driven south by the polar high pressure, bearing cold air upon already cold air from a cold Atlantic.

Not to mention the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which went negative two years ago (or so), bringing cold waters to the eastern Pacific (our West Coast).

The confluence of all these colder-than-average conditions is predicted to generate one or more Arcto-boreal Canadian cold fronts that will plunge down the Rockies to Florida, sweep up the East Coast, howl across the North Atlantic, picking up more cold Arctic air along the way, and plunge headlong into Europe.

Both Europe and North America experienced severe cold waves in December, but that was just a warm up (a chill down?) to the coming record freeze, if the predictions are correct.

Anthony Watts advises, “If you live in these areas: bundle up, stock up. Get ready.”

I pass the warning and the advice on to you. Be prepared, it’s going to get colder than [fill in the blank].

1 Jan 2010, 12:03pm
by Mike

More here, with great graphs and maps:

More Cold Due to Powerful Blocking for Much of Hemisphere

By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, December 30, 2009 [here]

… The AO reached 5.6 standard deviations negative on the 21st of December, the lowest value ever for December and behind only January 1977 and 1970 for winter values. It has backed off but still is close to 4 standard deviations negative as of today, the 30th. …

We have been telling our ag and energy clients in Europe and Asia and North America, this would be a cold El Nino at least well into January. Other forecasters like Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi and WeatherAction’s Piers Corbyn having been doing the same. We don’t use dynamical models for seasonal forecasts and are not biased by politically correct forecasts that require focus on warmth. …

2 Jan 2010, 1:08pm
by Mike

Record cold weather roundup – hundreds of new cold and snow records set in the last week

Watt’s Up With That, 2 Jan 2010 [here]


* New record lows in Florida.
* Maryland Reports 4 Cold Weather Deaths
* Cold weather kills scores in India
* Dublin airport suspends flights after heavy snowfall, cold weather
* Once in generation cold snap forecast for North Carolina
* Record low blows into Siouxland
* Recent global cool-down challenges validity of climate change models
* Record snow falls in Dallas / Fort Worth area

2 Jan 2010, 1:09pm
by admin

Britain facing one of the coldest winters in 100 years, experts predict

Britain is bracing itself for one of the coldest winters for a century with temperatures hitting minus 16 degrees Celsius, forecasters have warned.

by Nick Britten, UK Telegraph, 02 Jan 2010 [here]

They predicted no let up in the freezing snap until at least mid-January, with snow, ice and severe frosts dominating.

And the likelihood is that the second half of the month will be even colder.

On New Year’s Day 10 extreme weather warnings were in place, with heavy snow expected in northern England and Scotland.

Despite New Year celebrations passing off mostly unaffected by the weather, drivers in parts of the country, particularly areas of Northumberland, Cumbria and the Scottish Highlands, were warned not to travel unless absolutely necessary. …

2 Jan 2010, 10:32pm
by Foo Furb

Set the flamingos free!!!


May your New Year become warmer and brighter with the changing of the seasons.



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